Let’s Talk Derby: The Year of Cluelessness

So this doesn’t get lost in the Derby excitement, Barbaro’s younger brother, Nicanor, has shipped to Fair Hill, the training center. Beautiful horse. More pictures of him here. A long career to you, Nicanor.)

Shining City is far from the only place you’ll find a mystified, befuddled racing fan this year. From Steve Haskin to the blogosphere, we’re all a bit flummoxed over this year’s Derby field. No one of any real knowledge has come out and said, “This is the horse!” If they do…they rescind and offer another animal days or hours later. Wild.

It’s not without reason: two of the top contenders have only two career starts, others just three; another top horse has a turf pedigree, yet another the bloodlines of a sprinter; and of course there’s the huge question mark over things thanks to synthetic racing surfaces like those found at Keeneland, home of this year’s Blue Grass Stakes debacle. (For those not in the know, some horses don’t do as well over synthetics as they do over dirt — Churchill, Pimlico, and Belmont are all dirt tracks — and vice versa.) The Beyer speed figures are slow across the board, lower than they’ve been for 15 years.

Five starters have either never won on or even run on dirt. One is a filly; though Rags To Riches thrilled us all with her Belmont win last year, there’s a reason it’s a stunner to see a filly win one of these classics. One horse had a fever and high white blood count just last week.

Add into the mix disastrous races run by horses folks were gaga over, like Pyro and Cool Coal Man, who both floundered terribly in the Blue Grass. Tale of Ekati seems to have regressed since his two-year-old season, at least as far as the numbers go. Visionaire has always been promising, but also failed to earn in the Blue Grass (though he made up impressive ground, it was simply too late).

In short, this is the most shallow, inconsistent, inexperienced Derby field we’ve seen in a long, long time. Add to that the synthetic question and you’re almost as likely to pick the winner by asking your friendly local gerbil for his guess as you are me, Steve Haskin, Jerry Bailey, Mike Battaglia, Kenny Maynes, or that crazily entertaining Aussie guy who tells you whom to bet on between readjusting his cowboy hat and fluffing up his sideburns.

No one has a clue.

Now, granted: the best horse does not always win the Derby, not by a long shot. Don’t believe me? Let’s see: Point Given. Alydar. Afleet Alex. Victory Gallop. Slew O’ Gold. Risen Star. Easy Goer. Holy Bull. (Point Given’s and Afleet Alex’s names alone ought to settle that one for you.)

The best horse doesn’t always win. There’s a lot of luck involved. It’s horse racing. It’s been repeated the world over this year, and it’s true: In 2008, we can’t throw out any horses, but we can’t wholeheartedly embrace them, either. Not if we have any sense. We can stare at speed figures, races, and bloodlines all we like, but in the end this year, not many horsemen are blatantly waving the banner of just a horse or three the way we have in the past.

Hence my toes are still just straight red. Perhaps Saturday evening I’ll update them with the silks of the Derby winner, but for now, all I can do is swirl the glass and try to discern, in no real order, what those mint leaves might be suggesting. The wonder of the internet has allowed me to link to at least one winning race for each of these horses for you, so you get an idea of their style and ability.

Big Brown. Likely to be the favourite Saturday after his impressive win in March’s Florida Derby, which you can watch (and should – keep an eye on Smooth Air, too) here. It was indeed an impressive win, and Big Brown is an impressively handsome horse. Even more impressively, he won his Saratoga debut by 11.25 lengths and an allowance at Gulfstream by almost 13 lengths. Just this morning, he turned in a very nice, very comfortable :35 2/5 three-eighths work at Churchill Downs.

At the same time, Big Brown just today drew post position 20, the very outside, for the big race. He’s long had foot problems and a history of quarter cracks in his hooves, so much so that he has to wear very expensive, very special glue-on shoes. And there is the inexperience question: just three starts, though they were all wins.

There are two possibilities when it comes to Big Brown: he’s a freak and the one to beat, or…he’s another Bellamy Road. Who didn’t think Bellamy Road was one of the best in ’05? I was so torn between he and Afleet Alex my pedicure bore the silks of both horses, for Pete’s sake (though Alex had my heart from day one). Instead, the winner was a fluke horse. We all got burned that day.

I will not deny that Big Brown has been the most impressive horse thus far, that he’s the fastest, and possibly the most talented. His pedigree may hint at greatness as well. But he’s never been really challenged, much less hooked in the stretch, much like Curlin last year. I really want to see how he handles a resolute challenge from another horse: does he fight back to win, does he submit, or is he momentarily flummoxed, losing valuable ground and mental determination in the meantime? He may hit a wall in the Derby, then go on to win everything else; only time will tell.

He’s a freak and the real thing or he’s not. If he is, and the road stays clear, he’ll win, because he’s a bullet. If he’s not…there are 19 other horses in the race.

Colonel John. If you want a patriotic choice, this is the one. Named after Dallas resident and Air Force Lt. Colonel John Geiber, this is the one I’ll hand over to y’all Texans (though Big Brown and Court Vision have nicely patriotic silks). The human Colonel John spent time in Iraq, and will spend some time in Louisville this weekend, and of course, we wish him all well.

The equine Colonel John is probably going to be the bettors’ second choice Saturday, and with good reason. He’s been the most consistent horse in the entire field, with a record of 4-2-0 in six starts and earnings just shy of a million dollars. He’s got gorgeous breeding and a fine racing temperament, doing whatever the jock asks of him without being rank. Colonel John also has an acceleration and closing ability to be reckoned with, a good card to have in one’s pocket on Derby Day (see: Street Sense). His works have been terrific.

A real question does arise with Colonel John’s pedigree only in that Tiznow’s sons tend to be slow to mature. Still, the same is clear regarding A.P. Indy’s progeny, but he sired the first female Belmont winner in over a century. But as you know, it’s horse racing, and anything can happen.

More seriously, Colonel John has only two starts this year, neither of them on dirt. In fact, Colonel John has never, ever run on dirt. Ever. His works this week have eased many minds, though, so perhaps it isn’t as much of a question after all.

He’ll come out of post position 10. He’s got nice long legs and a very determined look every time he starts. Keep an eye on him.

Gayego Here’s your freedom choice, as his owners are Cuban natives Carlos Juelle and Jose Prieto. Prieto, a physician, had been held for five years as a political prisoner thanks to his anti-communist activities, for which he had originally received a sentence of execution. Accountant Juelle had been forced into 21 years of manual labor before escaping on a visa in 1970 with his wife and children. Both men lost everything but family and his life the day they left Cuba.

Upon meeting in the States and forming a friendship, the two began purchasing a single yearling every fall at Keeneland. After 18 years, they sit on the cusp, ready to put a real crown on their already satisfied American dreams.

I don’t suppose it could be more American unless they owned a baseball team, but compared with the beauty, majesty, and thrills to be found in horse racing, who wants to deal with tobacco-chewing, spitting fat guys?

Named after the Galacia region of northern Spain, this beautiful horse really impressed me with his Arkansas Derby win April 12, and I’ve had a good feeling about him ever since. The Gilded Time colt was purchased in 2006 for just $32,000, having been relegated to the bargain basement due to a rear quarter crack, one drawn attention to by electrical tape placed onto the injury before the horse stepped into the auction ring.

Kismet, perhaps? With 3 wins and 2 seconds in five starts, Gayego has made $723,420 for his thrilled owners and hasn’t had any problems since. Jockey Mike Smith famously fell in love with his mount from day one and would consider no other 3-year-old this season. On Saturday, he worked five furlongs in a respectable 1:01 (don’t you love YouTube?) over a muddy track.

The real concerns are about his staying ability, though he is inbred 5×5 to Ribot, and also boasts Arts and Letters and ’43 Triple Crown winner Count Fleet on his dam’s side. Gilded Time is really considered more of a speed horse, so it’s hard to say how things will end up as far as the influence of his pedigree.

Four of his five starts have come on synthetic surfaces. He’ll fire from post position 19. Again…have had a good feeling about him. Maybe it’s just his beauty and the story of his owners. Go, go, Gayego!

Smooth Air. If you ask me, this horse has been overlooked. His breeding isn’t flashy, nor are his races, but one thing he has shown is determination and guts. In his second-place Florida Derby finish to Big Brown (did you watch?), this colt never gave up, just kept on coming. I liked seeing the way he just hung on, even though there was no way he could catch Big Brown. He wasn’t good enough that day (or, rather, wasn’t as good as Big Brown), but could Saturday be his day? As we saw in January’s Hutcheson, particularly the final furlong, Smooth Air can and will hang on. He has improved steadily all along, never giving us stinkers like the other horses.

Of course, he also had a fever last week, missing several days of training. His breeding, too, is more suitable for a sprinter, not a distance horse. Up ’till now, though, he has admirably outrun that pedigree up to this point. Whether he will overcome it to stay strong through ten furlongs this weekend we don’t know, but taking his entire career in hand with his doggedness, it would be a pleasant and not entirely surprising outcome for his connections if he did so Saturday afternoon. His 70-year-old, old-school trainer Bennie Stutts has eased this colt over longer and longer distances, and the team is clearly hoping it pays off. We might see it happen.

Tale of Ekati. Everybody loved this Tale of the Cat son last year, but he’s failed badly in March’s Louisiana Derby and didn’t do so hot in the Breeder’s Cup, either. His Wood Memorial win was slow and a race many think he won merely because War Pass was exhausted, and more ominously, Edgar Prado gave up the horse to ride Adriano (admittedly, another longshot coming in off a six-week layoff and was killed in his only dirt start). He’s a talented horse, but the Barclay Tagg-trained colt may have needed more time to develop. Still, writing him off just seems like a stupid move to me.

Court Vision. He’s won at Churchill before, closes like the hound of Heaven, will be steered by the top jock in the country, is bred to go at least a mile and a quarter, hasn’t finished worse than third in six starts, is trained by the winningest trainer in Churchill Downs history, has proven he’ll overcome major difficulties, and…well, he just looks well-muscled and wicked fast.

I also defy anyone who has watched his amazing win in the Remsen Stakes to deny this horse has the will to win and the heart to back it up. Wow.

Speaking of that breeding, it’s excellent. By Gulch out of a Storm Bird mare, he’s also the grandson of Weekend Surprise, daughter of Secretariat. In 1995, another son of Gulch out of a Storm Bird mare — a colt by the name of Thunder Gulch — won the Derby, Belmont, and Travers before winning the title of champ 3-year-old-male. Weekend Surprise is also the dam of Honor Grades, Summer Squall, and the great A.P. Indy (not only a great racehorse, but a great stallion). Not bad at all. There is stamina, talent, and perhaps most importantly, guts in that pedigree.

Court Vision has placed 3rd in his last two races, but if you ask me, he’s primed for a win and could well clobber the living daylights out of the rest of the field. Though paper says he’s too slow, he’s been spinning out fabulous works over the past week or so. As Steve Haskin has pointed out,

When a horse of this quality undergoes such a dramatic change, especially at Churchill Downs, where he has already won a grade II stakes, it is exactly what you’re looking for. …Right now is when you’re looking for your horse to suddenly blossom, and Court Vision showed today that’s what’s happening with him.

He’ll break from post position 4, between Anak Nakal and filly Eight Belles. Like stablemate Big Brown, he’ll be sporting blue star-spangled silks with red bars on the sleeves.

Visionaire. Barbaro’s trainer is back this year with Visionaire, a well-travelled son of Grand Slam. He’s had some bad luck and bad weather to contend with, but has still won 3 of his six starts, only finishing off the board once, and that a fifth in the Blue Grass we may have to forgive him for, particularly as he got trapped behind a slow pace but still managed to make up a lot of ground in the end.

His win in this year’s sloppy, foggy Gotham was a treat; the pea soup obscured much of the race, during which Visionaire wasn’t a factor until he literally came out of nowhere to nab Texas Wildcatter at the wire, making up a lot of ground to boot. He breezed a half-mile in :48.40 Monday at Churchill, exactly what Michael Matz wanted him to do.

Still, there are concerns (running theme here) that with that Grand Slam pedigree he may not be able to handle the Derby distance. He has a nice closing kick, but has to get close enough for it to count.

Eight Belles. Ah, the lady in the race. No one was sure if trainer J. Larry Jones would run against the boys or not, but she’s got a post position now, so it’s pretty much official. She’ll try to be the fourth filly to win the Derby, the first since Winning Colours’ victory over Forty Niner and Risen Star 20 years past. The heavily-raced daughter of Unbridled’s Song and granddaughter of Dixieland Band flaunts a four-win streak, something none of the lads can boast of. She’s got the stamina necessary for the Derby and has even won around two turns already. Sure, she has a shot. And it’s always fun to have a filly in the Derby. Her pedigree is clearly solid, with stamina from her daddy and speed from her dam’s side. Thus far, Eight Belles has sparkled in nearly all of her races. Filly or no, she’s likely to give the field a run for its money Saturday, though 10 furlongs may just be too much for her.

Denis of Cork. Long ago this colt began gaining the affection of Derby watchers — with his maiden win at Churchill last November, to be exact. A son of Harlan’s Holiday and grandson of the great Unbridled (very nicely bred), he has won 3 of 4 starts. Denis of Cork almost didn’t get into the Derby due to his low graded earnings; fortunately for him, Behindatthebar’s connections decided to point their colt to the Preakness, leaving that spot open for Denis, who did beat a rather large and fast field in the Southwest Stakes by charging up along the outside like a hockey puck off the stick of Henrik Zetterberg. Considering the cavalry charges of recent Derbys, I think having experience in large, rowdy fields is a plus.

Nice bloodlines, nice running style; if he plays his cards right and a few other horses fall apart, Denis of Cork may reward those who have long liked him.

Monba. Todd Pletcher’s Monba was the one to benefit from everyone else falling apart in the Blue Grass, winning nicely and beating stablemate Cowboy Cal as well as 10 other horses. However, Monba did turn in a very sour 12th-place finish in February’s Fountain of Youth, resulting in his being dropped from every Derby list. This loss is obviously still a sour taste in many handicapper’s mouths, because Steve Haskin has had to deal with mockery and disdain after putting Monba at the top of his Derby Dozen for two weeks running. Monba has three wins in five starts (the fifth being a fourth-place finish in December’s CashCall Futurity). Honestly, he’s not that bad a horse, and I’m not sure why people aren’t paying him a little more respect.

Monba is well-bred, too. He’s a son of Maria’s Mon, great-grandson of Buckpasser twice over, and a grandson of Easy Goer.

Finally…yeah, he’s a Pletcher horse. Until last year’s Belmont, Todd Pletcher had won nearly everything except the Masters and a classic.

Until last June. With a filly. In the Belmont.

Pyro. Pyro, Pyro, Pyro. I seem to recall everyone calling him the best horse in the country after the Louisiana Derby, only to bashfully start making excuses after his 10th-place finish in the Blue Grass. Still, there is a strong possibility Pyro simply didn’t like Keeneland’s synthetic surface; he could bounce right back in the Derby. Prior to the Blue Grass, the son of Pulpit had won thrice and placed twice in 6 starts.

One thing Pyro is doubtless very happy about is the absence of Breeder’s Cup Juvenile winner War Pass, who didn’t enter the Derby due to an injury. War Pass drubbed Pyro three times, the latter never getting close enough to win against his rival.

As far as pedigree, he might have it. Pulpit, son of A.P. Indy, doesn’t bestow as much stamina as his sire does; the speed is there, but that isn’t all that counts in the Derby. Pyro, like Tale of Ekati so promising at one time, is a big question mark, and one to watch. He pulled away easily when challenged in the Louisiana Derby and didn’t even seem flustered by the extra effort.

Cool Coal Man. Other than a cool name, this son of Mineshaft was another sure thing before he placed 9th in the Blue Grass. He’s won 4 and placed in 1 of 8 starts, including a victory in the Fountain of Youth.

Cool Coal Man, trained by Nick Zito, has won at Churchill before and could do so again. No one thinks it’s very likely, but I’d hate to leave him out. The inside post position (1) could hurt him if he gets trapped in a wolf pack, but that is a risk they’ll have to take. Zito is a good trainer, and I hate to leave his horses out.

Adriano. The only reason I’m mentioning him is that Edgar Prado dumped the once-heralded Tale of Ekati for this horse and because Adriano is a son of one of my favourites, A.P. Indy. Now, even though Tale of Ekati has lost many members of his fan club, most would agree that on paper he’s probably a better horse, and this has made people wonder what Adriano is hiding under his saddle. It’s been six weeks since this horse ran a race and we still don’t know whether or not he likes dirt.

Still…Edgar Prado, one of the best jockeys around, chose Adriano over Tale of Ekati. It’s a little odd, since Adriano clearly loves the turf more than dirt. He placed 9th in the Fountain of Youth. He won the Lane’s End March 22, and that long stride of his is indeed a beautiful thing, but synthetic surfaces are often compared to turf…the Derby is run on dirt.

What gives? Only Edgar and Adriano know for sure. But any horse Prado sits on will get another look from me, just as it was always wise to stick with a Pat Day mount.

Z Fortune. He could be sitting on an explosive race, but I wonder if he has a tendency to be lazy. He’s won 3 of 6 starts, but only 1 win out of 4 starts so far this year; part of me wonders why he’s running in the Derby at all, but if Anak Nakal is running…

He placed second in the Arkansas Derby, which may play in his favour this weekend. Steve Haskin wonders if that woke Z Fortune up in time.

Ridden by Robby Albarado and trained by Steve Asmussen, he’s a maternal grandson of Fortunate Prospect, one of the greatest stallions in Florida breeding history and a resident at Old Friends Equine in Lexington, Kentucky. The grand old man let me get a couple of nice eye-to-eye portraits last spring.

All of that is beside the point as far as Z Fortune goes. He could go either way. Here is his January 1 LeComte Stakes win. I’ll admit to having missed his cresting the wave earlier this spring due to our losing Remmy.

Those are the horses I know most about. Also running: Anak Nakal, another Nick Zito trainee with Rafael Bejarano up. 2 wins in 6 starts, and no better than 5th since his win in the Kentucky Jockey Club Gold Cup back in November. Big Truck is the son of a sprinter, grandson of ’94 Derby winner Go for Gin and a fine-looking animal. Though trained by Barclay Tagg and ridden by Javier Castellano, I don’t know enough about this horse to give a qualified opinion. His worst finish was an 11th in the Blue Grass, but sometimes I wonder if we shouldn’t all just throw that race out this year; his record is 3-1-1 from his 7 other starts. He went through a bad spot last fall, improved…then the Blue Grass.

Z Humor features Forty Niner and A.P. Indy as grandsires, and his sire is none other than Distorted Humor, sire of horses like Funny Cide, Commentator, Flower Alley, Any Given Saturday, and Hystericalady. But the colt hasn’t done well at all this year, not winning a race since December’s gr. III Delta Jackpot. Bob Black Jack has had some monster works, looks great…but there are stamina concerns, and he did nothing but sprint until this year. I wouldn’t say he’s a bad horse, but things are uncertain. The Derby will be a stretch for this horse.

Cowboy Cal is another Pletcher horse, one who has raced (and done well) mostly on the turf. Then he seconded to stablemate Monba in the Blue Grass. A son of Giant’s Causeway with Seeking the Gold as his maternal grandsire, Cowboy Cal certainly ought to have the stamina for the Derby, but whether or not he can maintain his speed too is the question. His only dirt start, at Saratoga, resulted in a 7th-place finish. Finally, we have the optimistically named Recapturetheglory. Put forth by the racing connections of 1988′s thwarted Triple Crown contender Risen Star, he won the Illinois Derby but has otherwise mostly run in small allowance races. Of course it would be nice to see a sentimental winner and a sort of revenge for Risen Star’s loss in ’88, but I’m not sure Recapturetheglory is the horse to do it.

So…that’s your 2008 Derby. Really, no one knows what to make of it. Handicappers nationwide are sitting there amidst a stack of Racing Forms, having watched the prep races over and over again and still can’t really figure it out; there are too many question marks overall, and not one horse is coming into the gate without asterisks and concerns. I’ve not seen anything like it before, but even old-timers are uncertain.

I should also note it is a year ending in an 8. Horsemen are superstitious folk, and this one not without reason: 8s have brought us Triple Crown winners, filly winners, ridiculous longshot winners, and just general mayhem. Anything can happen in a year ending in 8.

While, as you ought to know by now and as we all ought to understand after fluke supreme Giacomo won the Derby a few years ago, anything can, will, and does happen in the Derby, some horses are clearly just field fillers hoping for a lucky break: Anak Nakal, Big Truck, Z Humor, Recapturetheglory, probably even Cowboy Cal and Bob Black Jack.

Others have a better shot (perhaps I should say “actual shot”), horses like Tale of Ekati, Denis of Cork, Z Fortune (though I’d say they’re borderline), Cool Coal Man, Eight Belles, Visionaire, Gayego, Pyro, Smooth Air.

Our real contenders, the best of the bunch are going to be Colonel John, Big Brown, Court Vision, and Monba. Any of these horses won’t surprise us if they win, though if it’s Big Brown I know we’ll hear “great” and “Triple Crown”. It may well be qualified by a spectacular Derby win; we’ll just have to wait and see. I’ll be happy with a win from any of these animals, and will include Gayego in that group because his backstory is fabulous and I just like the horse; I also just plain like Smooth Air, because he’s been consistent and stable throughout.

It’s kind of odd for me, not having at least one horse I really love to win the Derby. By Saturday, that could well change, as we get to watch workout footage and, importantly, get to see the hopefuls in the paddock and post parade (which is usually when I sit there and say, “Oh my, that’s the horse!” and turn out to be right; it’s something in their movement, in their attitude). In a way, it makes watching the race more fun, though, because my hopes aren’t riding on one animal.

This year, I may not have a pedicure which elicits questions and quizzical looks from everyone I meet, but there’s one thing we can be certain of, it’s an exciting Kentucky Derby.

Friday photo tomorrow; Derby live-blogging just about all day Saturday.