Belmont Week; Nicanor update

My brain being just one news story away from bursting, let’s talk about the Belmont, shall we?

Firstly, we heard last week that Preakness-winning superfilly Rachel Alexandra will not run in the mile-and-a-half classic in New York. No reason, really, other than her owners think she deserves a break. Still, she and Derby winner Mine That Bird could meet up again in August’s $1-million Haskell Invitational, so if you’re yearning for a rematch, just wait a few months.

(Personally, I still want to see what sort of fireworks we’ll get to enjoy when Rachel meets up with true superhorse, the wicked-awesome 10-for-10 Zenyatta, who is almost indisputably the best racehorse on the track today.)

That said, Mine That Bird will indeed show up for the “Test of Champions”, and as of now stands as the 2-1 favourite, with Calvin Borel aboard once again.

(If it matters, 47% of voters at the Belmont website think, or hope, Mine That Bird will win as well.)

Also in the race will be Chocolate Candy, Dunkirk, Mr. Hot Stuff, Summer Bird, D. Wayne Lukas trainees Luv Gov and Flying Private, the much-anticipated Charitable Man, Miner’s Escape, and Brave Victory. Right now, Charitable Man is the 3-1 second choice, with Dunkirk at 4-1.

Mine That Bird drew post position seven, pretty fair spot in a comfy field of ten. Chocolate Candy and Dunkirk are posts one and two, while Charitable Man will be right next door to the Derby winner in six. The Zito horses, Miner’s Escape and Brave Victory, have drawn nine and ten; I point this out primarily because Nick Zito, a hometown boy, has a habit of stealing Belmonts: Da’Tara or, more heartbreakingly, Birdstone, anyone?

(Birdstone was perhaps the first Belmont winner in history to be booed.)

Now, Chocolate Candy and Dunkirk might be right on the pace; having skipped the Preakness and indeed every race between the Derby and the Belmont, they’re fresh and ready to go, compared to the horses who ran in the Derby and the Belmont. This is one of those things that piques me about the Triple Crown races—run in just the Derby or all of them, but don’t skip the Preakness and then head to New York for the Belmont—but it’s not quite so bad when there’s no Crown on the line. I do think that these two horses, along with newcomer Charitable Man, will probably be Mine That Bird’s primary contenders; they’re really nice horses. Still like Flying Private, though (and I have to say I’ve not had time to look at the works).

Additionally, Flying Private is the only colt in the race aside from Mine That Bird to start in all three races this year, an accomplishment in itself these days.

You can expect the Derby winner to run in his usual style: off the pace. Of course, the other jocks will expect this, and they’ll expect Borel to try another of his famous rail runs, but Calvin is no dummy and will be ready and willing to take Mine That Bird around the pack if necessary to win, though we’d rather that not be the case.

What about the weather? It’s a cold, rainy week in the Midwest and East this week. According to reports, it’s going to rain in Elmont tonight all the way through Friday night, with mild temps in the mid-70s Belmont day. If it’s not breezy and not sunny, I’m not sure the track will have time to dry out; as we saw in the Derby, that didn’t bother Mine That Bird one bit, did it? Then again, he’s got to be tired, having bravely taken on the entire Triple Crown grind with true heart, and his running style might not work in his favor if the track is heavy.

Still, Mine That Bird’s real deal status having already been sealed, the other compelling story Saturday is bound to be Calvin Borel’s chance to win a personal Triple Crown. He’d be the first jockey to do so on different horses, and probably the first jockey to win the Triple Crown since Stevie Cauthen did so on Affirmed, the last Triple Crown winner, in 1978. Calvin is confident, to say the least:

“He’ll win,” the 42-year-old Louisiana native said. “That’s what we’re here for.”

With a victory, Borel could become the first jockey to sweep the Triple Crown races aboard two different horses—a fact he knows well but is choosing not to focus upon as the 1½-mile race draws closer.

“It would be awesome, but it won’t sink in until afterward,” Borel said. “I’m just going out there to win the race. I want to win it for [trainer] Chip [Woolley] because I owe that to him for giving me the opportunity to ride the horse back. This is a dream, and I’m just riding it right now.”

Borel said the increase in distance would not faze Mine That Bird and added that he was more familiar with Belmont Park—America’s largest dirt racetrack—than most people realize.

“I’ve ridden there a lot of times,” Borel said. “It’s like any track—you just turn left.

“I see a Derby race, same style. He sits back there. Belmont has a long stretch and I can sit and wait. I watch this horse every day; he goes two miles, 2 1/2 miles.”

As most of us know, Calvin is actually a pretty modest man, but he’s also bluntly honest. I’d hardly call him arrogant, he’s just…matter-of-fact.

More:

“I’ll let him run his race like I did in the Derby,” said Borel. “He has an unbelievable turn of foot. He reminds me so much of Street Sense when you set him down. That’s why I like the little horse.”

…Borel said it was the way Mine That Bird worked on Monday at Churchill Downs that gave him so much confidence.

“He worked the same was as he did before the Derby,” said Borel. “He did super good yesterday morning. He can go all day long.

We’ll see Saturday, God willing a safe trip for all on the track. I really hope Calvin wins it, not jut because I like Mine That Bird, but because I really like Calvin Borel…and vice versa.

In other stories, the Belmont undercard should be terrific as well. For one thing, 10-year-old veteran Better Talk Now will be running in the $400K Manhattan Handicap, and the winner of the 2007 Manhattan will be fending off some excellent competition in Champs Elysees, Court Vision, Gio Ponti, and Marsh Side. That’s five Grade I winners in a single race. Should be a slam-bang good time, too.

In the True North Handicap, 2008 winner Benny the Bull is hoping to repeat, but he will have to beat Fabulous Strike, a Pennsylvania-bred son of Smart Strike who has won 12 of 19 career starts. Benny is good, but my heart is with the fabulous one.

The G2 Woody Stephens should be fun, too: Regal Ransom, This One’s For Phil, Hull, and Everyday Heroes (the latter two being unbeaten).

It should be a really fun day for all, though obviously the weather might throw a wrench into things.

Occasionally I’m asked about Barbaro’s little brothers, mostly 3-year-old Nicanor (the other is Lentenor). Nicanor was injured in one of his first races out, placing third, and was taken off the Triple Crown trial so he could recover. The colt had broken his maiden by a smashing 15 lengths in his first grass start, so perhaps he’ll be a turf horse (Barbaro, you’ll recall, started out as a turf horse, and many thought his turf-running style would hurt him on the dirt). At any rate, Nicanor was entered into a grass race on Saturday’s Belmont undercard by trainer Michael Matz, but I’m looking at Belmont day entries, and it doesn’t look like he’s gotten in. Barbaro’s little brother has been nominated for two races in mid-July and might start within the next few weeks at Delaware Park. If you want to follow Barbaro’s little brothers (looks like a fourth is on the way, too!), you can always check out the Tracking Barbaro’s Brothers blog at The Blood-Horse.

Nicanor is a looker, too; very handsome. I don’t know if Dynaformer has sired better-looking foals than those out of La Ville Rouge.

It would be wonderful to see him at the West Virginia Derby in August, which the Jacksons won last year with Ready Set, but I’m not sure they’ll bring Nicanor to that since it’s a dirt race, or if he’d even be ready for it. We’ll see!